The wonder of you – Election Update 26 April 2010

The wit and wisdom of Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats continued to dominate the election this weekend, following up on another solid performance in the second Leaders’ Debate on Thursday (22 April). 

Carcetti Clegg [tenuous The Wire reference] has moved to nullify the Conservatives' “Vote Liberal Democrat, Get Brown” message of last week with a carefully worded performance on Sunday’s Andrew Marr Show where he appeared to rule out “propping up” Gordon Brown as Prime Minister if Labour came third in terms of the popular vote.  This has been variously and more specifically interpreted as:

• a commitment to not support Gordon Brown as Prime Minister in a coalition government if Labour came third in the popular vote; or
• a commitment to not support any Labour Prime Minister in a coalition government if Labour came third in terms of votes (in effect a bid to be Prime Minister himself).

However he then went on to say that in theory he “could sit around the cabinet table with anyone” [the interview is still online if anybody wants to examine it for clarity but strangely the transcript link doesn’t work at the moment].

Taken alongside David Cameron’s refusal to rule out a referendum on electoral reform - leaving open the possibility of a Conservative-Liberal Democrat agreement - the only thing that is really clear is that everything is probably up for discussion.  But probably not Gordon Brown staying in Number 10, unless Labour massively out-perform expectations on 6 May.

To his credit, Clegg did reiterate that if any party got the most seats and the most votes they would have the right to form a government.  With that Clegg appears to have ruled out a Liberal Democrat/Labour coalition government if the Conservatives end up with the biggest share of the popular votes and parliamentary seats but don’t get an outright majority in either.  That may come back to haunt him if it denies his party the opportunity for electoral reform that would presumably be the price for cooperating with Labour.

The polls continue to paint a confusing picture as well, with either the Lib Dems and Labour up and down a few percentage points depending on one’s choice of poll.  The Conservatives, however, are fairly consistent in getting support of around 35%.

All this shows up further the vagaries of the first-past-the-post electoral system - national vote often has little to do the number of seats secured.  Clegg has variously described it as “preposterous”, “irrational” and “potty” in recent days.  What is clear is that the final share of the popular vote is likely to have greater moral authority in the fall-out to this general election than it ever has had before and the clamour for electoral reform is going to increase as a result.

Whilst both the Conservatives and Labour continue to play catch-up in the wake of Clegg's performances in the TV debates there is still some policy debate to be had.

Michael Gove was forced into a swift rebuttal of the BBC's story that two Conservative council leaders were worried about the financial implications if parents were allowed to establish their own ' free schools'.  Gove criticised the BBC and said that the Council leaders were 100 percent behind the policy.  There would not be any changes for existing state schools as money would come from the efficiency saving in the Department for Children, Schools and Families.    Arguably this little drama could provide a sneak preview of the tensions that will lie in store for a majority or minority Conservative government in its relations with what is a predominantly Conservative local government community (and of course with the Mayor of London, as well).

Politicians often welcome the value of celebrity backers and the influence they wield.  Whilst the Lib Dems have Harry Potter (well, Daniel Radcliffe) and the Conservatives have Gary Barlow, celebrities have been less inclined to come out for Labour at this election.  However, they now appear to have triumphed by pulling in the support of Elvis Presley.  Admittedly, it was only an Elvis impersonator singing at a party event and his choice of “The Wonder of You” (“When no-one else can understand me, When everything I do is wrong”) may turn out to neatly summarise Brown's time as Prime Minister.

PS
The Financial Times’ ‘deficit buster’ feature hammers home the hard choices that any government is going to have to make on the public finances.  We’re not sure how the FT feels about deep-links to their website so best go to FT.com and search for “deficit-buster” if you are interested.  It makes for a very sobering little ‘game’.