Election Update - Thursday 22 April 2010
At a breakfast seminar held at our offices this morning, Andrew Hawkins, Executive Chairman of ComRes a leading polling and research company, and his colleague Daniel Hamilton, Head of European Insight at ComRes, spoke about the latest developments in the General Election. As a guest contributor to our General Election update, here Andrew gives his view on the state of play.
'We have to remember the backdrop to this election - the worst economic recession in 80 years, the little respect for politics and the loss of faith in politicians, mainly due to the expenses scandal. This helps us to understand the current polls and, in particular, get to the heart of Clegg-mania.
The stunning response to Clegg in last week's Leader's Debate was clear and decisive but the Lib Dems had already been gaining in the polls in the run-up to the debate mainly because of the profile they had gained in what initially was a dull election campaign. But it is where this new support is coming from which is worrying some. He is in a curious position: what some see as his strengths, others see as his weaknesses. Also his support appears to come from those who were previously backing 'others' or were undecided. This all points to a general 'softness' in his vote and this ought to worry the Lib Dems.
However, that is not automatically good news for Labour and the Conservatives. Gordon Brown's personal ratings are as poor as those of Michael Foot in 1983 and the numbers of those who do not know what David Cameron stands for remains stubbornly high.
We should also dig beneath the national polling figures and start to look at the constituencies. In London, swings to the Conservatives are likely to exaggerate the national trend and the demographic changes experienced in places like Tooting could easily see Labour lose seats. The South East looks set to expand its blue hue but in the North and Midlands the economic situation remains a key determinant in expected voting patterns. In Scotland whilst the SNP may gain some seats, Labour will remain dominant and the Conservatives will be fortunate to gain more than a seat or two.
The possibility of the election of a first Green MP, Caroline Lucas, looks a distinct possibility in Brighton Pavilion. This would give the party a huge boost in terms of profile and could well see them attract support from Labour and the Lib Dems in future elections. Some form of proportional representation could also be a potential game changer for the Greens, of course, in future elections. That though is an issue for the next election, whenever that may be.
There are some key issues to consider in the remaining days before polling including:
How 'soft' is the support for Clegg and the Lib Dems?
Will voters respond to the current Conservative messages of 'vote Clegg, get Brown'?
Could Labour not win the election but remain in No 10?
Will the two remaining Leader's Debates lead to diminishing returns for Clegg?
If we are looking at around one third national support for each of the main parties, no-one should be fooled into thinking that this will be reflected in the number of seats that they will secure. The Lib Dems would get, by far, the lowest number of seats but that may still be enough for them to hold the balance of power.
Also, we must not forget that postal votes go out on Monday and, in the past, they tend to be returned quite quickly. So the polls this Sunday will be all important.'
