Election update - 16 April 2010
Reactions from the historic leaders' debate last night have been mixed, with all three parties claiming victory for their top man. The debate was tentative on the whole, and tedious in parts, but the candidates remained composed throughout and avoided any major slip ups that could have led to embarrassing headlines today.
If there was a slight disappointment, it was probably David Cameron's performance. Even this was only relative - expectations were high for the challenger given his strong public oratory record, though he looked surprisingly uncomfortable at times and perhaps lacked the spark he usually portrays on the big occasions. His tactic of coming across as statesmanlike and relatively unaggressive left some feeling that he could have done more to put across the spirit of the Conservative manifesto. His pre-prepared opening and closing statements seemed slightly inconsistent with his talk in-between but he will have done enough to consolidate support among traditional followers with statements on the “big” issues of immigration, crime and health.
Gordon Brown played to his relative strengths, focusing his arguments on the economy and he managed to steer clear of any significant mistakes. He was aggressive towards Cameron, trying to pin him down on cuts. Conversely, at times he appeared to be trying it on a little too hard with Clegg, with the Liberal Democrat leader trying to wriggle out of Brown’s metaphorical embrace. No one expected him to look completely at ease on the stage, and it would be a push to claim that he was.
Nick Clegg was the unlikely 'victor' in the debate, appearing comfortable and natural in front of the camera and managing to project the appearance of keeping out of ‘conventional’ party politics, instead managing to build some sort of rapport with the audience and viewers at home. His job last night was to turn up and introduce himself to the country but may well have won a few fans for him and his party in the process. He exceeded expectations, although in all fairness, these were not high.
The Liberal Democrats have no (recent) history of government so are free to blame the ills of the nation on the mistakes of the entrenched 'old' parties, something which Clegg did effectively. Any sustained bump in the polls for the third party will concern the Tories most - more seats for the Lib Dems will play against any chance of a Tory victory - so expect their policies to come under much greater scrutiny over the next week in an attempt to highlight their naivety and lack of experience. Clegg has effectively inserted the Lib Dems into the national debate and for this he will come under greater fire in round two, with Cameron looking to be the most likely aggressor. With expectations now raised it will be interesting to see how Clegg responds.
Gordon Brown will be looking for more of the same ‘serious man for serious times’ angle next week and will perhaps want to get stuck into Cameron even more. Cameron himself will need to assert himself in the debate more.
The Conservatives still hold a slight lead in the overall polls, but those to be conducted over the weekend will give a better indication of whether the debate has had any lasting effect on voting intentions.
Next Thursday (22 April 2010) BDB will be hosting a breakfast seminar in Westminster with Andrew Hawkins, Executive Chairman of leading pollsters ComRes. If you are interested in attending please contact Hayley Greaves at hayleygreaves@bdb-law.co.uk for more details.
